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When Americans went to the polls on Election Day 2004, nearly 51 percent pulled the lever, punched a chad or touched a screen for George W. Bush. Only 32 percent of the electorate would do the same today. What changed the minds of 23 million people?
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High gas prices freak us out, not necessarily because they're objectively too high--we Americans still pay a lot less than they do in Europe--but because we've come to think of gasoline as a fairly fixed expense. The average American household consumes 26 gallons of gas each week. When the average weekly gas bill doubles to $83.20 in a couple of years, it's a pinch for the well-off and a budget-buster for the rest of us. And if there's anything worse than paying more at the pump, it's seeing that our leaders don't get it--what the heck were Congressional Republicans thinking when they floated their $100 gas tax rebate? That's two fill-ups, guys.
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When in doubt, ask the experts. Red Cavaney, president of the industry trade group American Petroleum Institute--not left-leaning types--puts the blame squarely on the invasion of Iraq, where unrest and violence has reduced production to less than they were under Saddam in the world's second-largest supplier. Traders of oil futures fix the price per barrel based on their expectations of political stability, especially in the world's largest oil-producing nations. And they don't like what they see in Iraq. "As soon as you can stabilize the civil situation," says Cavaney, "[Iraq will] significantly be able to ramp up production. But it would take years."
The chart of the crucial "light sweet crude oil" futures index reads like a barometer of political tension in energy-producing hotspots. Oil, hovering around $27 a barrel in 2001, spiked to $38 when the United States went to war against Afghanistan--a potential oil pipeline route and neighbor to several large producers. It jumped from $33 to $40 in February 2003, just before the U.S. attack against Iraq. Insurgents have blown up pipelines and refineries there ever since, causing a steady climb to $76.
Adding to the high cost of crude oil, says former Louisiana senator and oil company lobbyist Bennett Johnston, is the Bush Administration's "saber rattling" against Iran. "We'd see gasoline prices of $5 or $6; crude oil above $100 if we bomb Iran," he predicts.
So voters are right. If Bush wants to bring down oil prices, he can. All he has to do is stop threatening war, and bring home the troops from Iraq.
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0503-34.htm
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Reality is what refuses to go away when I stop believing in it.
Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers.
That's right, I said it.
